A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
